Senate Race in Rhode Island

[From the Buddy Cianci show]:

Gene Ulm, a Partner in the Polling Firm of Public Opinion Strategies, LLC, Alexandria Virginia, appeared February 1, 2012 (3:35 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.)  on Buddy Cianci show, WPRO, Providence, RI, 630 AM, 99.7 FM, www.630wpro.com,  to go over a stunning new poll about the Rhode Island U.S. Senate race. The candidates are Barry Hinckley and incumbent Sheldon Whitehouse.

Hinckley is our former State Director for the FairTax in Massachusetts, who moved to Rhode Island and decided to run. Whitehouse's position on the FairTax is not known. Hinckley retired from an extremely successful business that he had started in Massachusetts, Bullhorn Software. Ulm is the pollster for the Romney campaign.

Ulm  took 450 samples with a 4.6% margin of error on January 19, 2012 through January 22, 2012. Ulm’s comment was “Sheldon Whitehouse is no Jack Reed  (the other Senator from Rhode Island).” The like-to-dislike ratio is approximately 1:1.  39% of those polled say Whitehouse should not be re-elected. 50% of those polled want to see someone new. These are remarkably negative figures for an incumbent.

Ulm attributes these remarkably negative results to two reasons:

1. Nobody associates Whitehouse with any issue or accomplishment, and
2. Whitehouse has a couple of distinct negatives, including insider trading allegations and support for bailouts.  Rhode Islanders did not want to pay for Medicare in Nebraska to get [Senator Nelson on board to get] the 60 votes needed to pass Obama-care. Whitehouse’s vote can be used against him in the campaign.

Ulm further notes:

1. Distrust of Congress, and
2. Unprecedented economic anxiety.

Cianci observed that Whitehouse has “been around forever,” has not connected, and that there is nothing to associate with him.

Cianci described Whitehouse as being “upside down,” especially with independents, which comprise half the state voters.  Cianci noted a picture of Whitehouse in the Philippines, while Rhode Islanders are struggling, taking ownership of a frigate for the Coast Guard has tarnished him.

Cianci noted further that Hinckley is just starting and is not known (two in ten know him), not having been “on the scene.” Nevertheless, 32% would vote for Hinckley “out of the box.” The undecideds want someone new by 72:8. Ulm noted that Hinckley benefits from not having had a political history.

Even though Whitehouse has $3-4 million in the bank, Hinckley has no Republican challenger, and the Rhode Island Republican Organization has sent a letter to the National Party advising that the state party is backing him.  When it comes who whom the National Party should support, Ulm noted that Rhode Island is a “cheap date.”  The cost of a Senate campaign in Rhode Island is about $5 million, compared to a $50 million price tag in states such as California.

Cianci offered Hinckley his (Cianci’s) old campaign slogan from an earlier though race: “You may not know [Barry Hinckley] today, but by election day he’ll look pretty good!”

The race will start “going up a few notches.”

Ulm described a geographic “crescent” in Rhode Island of undecided voters who will decide the race.

Because Rhode Island is a heavily Democratic state, Obama will have coattails, but they will not be as long as they were last time.

We just thought you should know. FairTax cannot support candidates for public office, but it can educate the public about their positions and offer comments from outside sources on the races. What you decide do with this information is up to you.

~Jim Bennett